Summary: Moore’s Law named after Gordon Moore (co-founder of Intel) predicts that the processing efficiency of computers, specifically the speed to computer chips, will grow to double in its efficiency from previous years. This theory has proven true on astounding levels. Not only have processing efficiencies doubling but they are taking less time to double with each period of time as compared to the previous. For example, it used to take centuries for this pattern to appear and then it began to take mere decades.
Reaction: I was extremely surprised to discover that computers were advancing at such a rapid pace. Before researching Moore’s Law, I was aware of the advancements of technology, but I did not understand that advancements were taking place at a faster rate than they previously were. Beyond the speed of advancements, I was intrigued that in juxtaposition with Moore’s Law, the size of computers are also decreasing at about the same rate at which computers are advancing.
Summary: Fuller’s Theory, named after Buckminster Fuller, states that there is a knowledge doubling time that grows at an exponential rate. There are many similar qualities between Moore’s Law and Fuller’s Theory. Both men predicted that society would continue to advance and that future generations would outshine previous generations work. While Moore’s Law related to computer efficiency, Fuller’s Theory discusses the knowledge of the human race as a whole beyond its application to technology. Despite those who believe society will eventually hit a point where advancements and knowledge acquisitions are at such a high level there is no room left for growth, Fuller remains steadfast in his optimistic belief that society will never run out of ways to top previous generations of thinkers.
Reaction: I found Fuller’s Theory to be quite interesting as it was not a topic that I had any background knowledge of. The concept of reaching a point of singularity (or artificial intelligence) and having no room for obvious advancements is difficult to imagine. From my perspective I do not imagine that the human race will reach this point anytime soon if ever. There always seems to be room for more improvement in society even from just a brief glace at human history. It is an interesting concept to contemplate regardless, and despite my hesitations, many people do predict this as an eventuality.
Summary: Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns (named after Ray Kurzweil, the creator of voice to text technology), expands upon Moore’s Law to say that the reasoning behind exponential growth of technology is that future generations work from the groundwork laid out by the previous generation making growth to occur significantly faster than compared to its predecessors’ level of achievement. He classifies this occurrence as being an “evolutionary event”. Despite Kurzweil’s agreeance with Moore regarding the law itself, Kurzweil is pessimistic in his view that the technological world will eventually reach singularity, or artificial intelligence. Not only does Kurzweil back this theory but he predicts that this occurrence is in the eminent future. Beyond this expansion upon Moore’s Law, Kurzweil predicts many future technological advancements with astonishing accuracy.
Reaction: In researching Ray Kurzweil’s ideology with regards to technological advancement, I was intrigued by his impressive abilities to accurately predict the future of technology. From a glance at Ray’s previous predictions that rang true, it is logical for one to assume that most, if not all, of his future predictions will continue to follow the same trend of accuracy. In particular, I found Kurzweil’s idea that, human food with not be eaten or obtained in the same way it has since the beginning of time, to be odd. Kurzweil predicted that nanotechnology will release humans from their dependency on ordinary food to survive. He also mentioned that he believes that food will be able to be “printed” (via technology) in a sense rather than grown. While I am aware of the startling accuracy of his previous predictions, I am doubtful about the accuracy of these predictions.
I do believe it is possible for nanotechnology to replace a human’s sense of hunger and “feed” a person, I do not believe that it will be preferable for most people. Food is a common thread for all of humanity, and therefore many celebrations and social activities are centered around it. For this reason, I cannot foresee food becoming irrelevant as Kurzweil believes. However, if this type of nanotechnology and printing became available it could be beneficial in certain medical situations and could be administered at hospitals to lessen a variety of patient’s problem. I also could see this as being a valuable advancement for less developed countries.
Summary: Peter Thiel, the co-creator of PayPal, formed the concept of “The End of the Future” in which he identified a problem with our society’s focus on growing technology for social reasons rather than other arguably more significant areas. Thiel discusses how society is quick to advance using computers, apps, and cellphones while not making much progress in advancing the fields of medicine, health, energy, and transportation which some would say is more important in the long run. While some technological advancements can be applied to these various fields, Thiel emphasizes his point that advancements should be made with these areas at hand rather than becoming an afterthought.
Reaction: In analyzing Theil’s reasoning that the world is falling behind in its lack of expansion of “atoms” as compared to “bits” I would have to agree with his overall view. Social media is progressing with new trends, as is technology in the creation of new cellphones and entertainment devices, but as a whole society is falling behind in light the optimistic outlooks many had in previous generations regarding what should have been accomplished at this point in history. For example, many are astounded by the lack of advancement in transportation. It was believed that flying cars would not only be available but that they would be in common use as of now. It is evident that our society is no where near implementing this potential means of travel. This example is just one of many as to how our society has begun to slow down in its innovative nature in many aspects of life.
The Techie Teacher 